THE SNP are on course for a landslide at the election next month.

Ruth Davidson and the Tories seem to think so, the opinion polls and the bookies seem to think so.

Having won 56 of the 59 Westminster seats last year and polls not shifting Nicola Sturgeon and co. are set to sweep all before them.

Ms Davidson may have conceded defeat but the Scottish Parliament election is not a foregone conclusion.

All the opinion polls point to the SNP being the biggest party but the voting system and its calculations mean the end result is far from clear cut.

The counting system for the Scottish Parliament is complicated and the differences with Westminster make it almost impossible for a party to win more than 90% of all MSPs.

The SNP won a majority in 2011 because as well as winning the most constituency seats, it was still able to pick up 16 seats on the regional list through second votes.

If, as expected, it increases its share of the First Past the Post seats from the 53 won in 2011 the number of list MSPs it wins will certainly reduce.

Unless the party wins a majority through the constituency seats, by winning at least 65 of the 73 available then a majority is not guaranteed.

The SNP knows it, which is why the party is hammering the Both Votes SNP message because only by securing a huge second vote will it also win the additional seats it might need to get it over the line.

The SNP will in all likelihood not get 16 list MSPs, there is a chance it will not win more than handful on the list.

In Glasgow for example, in 2011 the SNP won five of the eight constituency MSPs and two on the list.

If it was to win another two constituencies it is possible it would not get any on the list, so would still have seven.

Last time in Lothian the SNP won no seats on the list because it took eight of the nine constituencies.

If that was replicated across the eight regions it would end up with 65 seats and a majority of one.

Any less and it needs the second votes to give the additional list members it would require.

With the Greens pushing hard for one list MSP in every region and the Tories likely to pick up at least one and if Labour lose constituency MSPs it would expect more on the list and the SNP could be squeezed out.

Which is why it is premature to predict landslides.