FIFA published the Men’s Ranking today for the final time before the World Cup kicks off in Russia.

By this point the mere mention of the governing body’s system of rating national teams is enough to produce an eye-rolling response from most football fans, but what if they were right?

We have looked at the ranking of every nation at the World Cup to simulate how the tournament would pan out if results are true to form.

Read more: Scotland plummet eight places in latest FIFA ranking update​

Hosts Russia would be set for an early exit, England would crash out in the last 16 and fancied sides like Spain, Argentina and Belgium would also fall short of their target.

Ranking number in brackets, winning team capitalised.

Group stage

Group A

  1. URUGUAY (14)
  2. EGYPT (45)
  3. Saudi Arabia (67)
  4. Russia (70)

Group B

  1. PORTUGAL (4)
  2. SPAIN (10)
  3. Iran (37)
  4. Morocco (41)

Group C

  1. FRANCE (7)
  2. PERU (11)
  3. Denmark (12)
  4. Australia (36)

Group D

  1. ARGENTINA (5)
  2. CROATIA (20)
  3. Iceland (22)
  4. Nigeria (48)

Group E

  1. BRAZIL (2)
  2. SWITZERLAND (6)
  3. Costa Rica (23)
  4. Serbia (34)

Group F

  1. GERMANY (1)
  2. MEXICO (15)
  3. Sweden (24)
  4. South Korea (57)

Group G

  1. BELGIUM (3)
  2. ENGLAND (12)
  3. Tunisia (21)
  4. Panama (55)

Group H

  1. POLAND (8)
  2. COLOMBIA (16)
  3. Senegal (27)
  4. Japan (61)

Last 16

Uruguay (14) v SPAIN (10)

FRANCE (7) v Croatia (20)

BRAZIL (2) v Mexico (15)

BELGIUM (3) v Colombia (16)

PORTUGAL (4) v Egypt (45)

ARGENTINA (5) v Peru (11)

GERMANY (1) v Switzerland (6)

POLAND (8) v England (12)

Quarter-finals

FRANCE (7) v Spain (10)

PORTUGAL (4) v Argentina (5)

GERMANY (1) v Poland (8)

BRAZIL (2) v Belgium (3)

Semi-finals

France (7) v BRAZIL (2)

Portugal (4) v GERMANY (1)

Third place play-off

France (7) v PORTUGAL (4)

Final

GERMANY (1) v Brazil (2)