Four thousand SNP members gathered in Glasgow for the SNP conference in Glasgow earlier this week.

Hope was the theme, it was on huge banners draped from the SEC ceilings and on the stage.

If anyone was hoping for an announcement on a second referendum, they were in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Many had been on the All Under One Banner march in Edinburgh the day before the conference, itching for a re-run of the 2014 poll.

The eagerly awaited Nicola Sturgeon’s speech closing the conference for a glimmer of when they could expect to mobilise once more.

The First Minister recognised this growing element of independence supporters.

She said it was a “joyous” sight.

But instead of receiving battle orders, they were asked for the same patience they were asked for the year before and in the meantime make the case for independence and the time would come.

It’s all down to Brexit you see. “Once the fog has lifted” is when a decision will be made.

The SNP is waiting for the terms of a deal or no deal on the UK leaving the EU to become known before making a commitment to a second referendum.

Are we expected to believe that if the deal includes access to the single market and is somehow palatable there will be no referendum on Scotland leaving the UK?

It is less about the terms of a deal and the impact a deal will have on the opinion polls.

For Nicola Sturgeon to go for a referendum so soon after the first one she must be certain it can be won.

Some might want to keep holding a referendum until victory is achieved but Nicola Sturgeon is more astute than that and knows there is only one more chance at independence for a very long time.

It is not the details of the deal that are important but whether it is going to be significant enough to change the mind of hundreds of thousands of no voters.

The combined polling data just now for independence on What Scotland Thinks shows a no vote still ahead on 54% to 46%.

Earlier this year one pollster had the gap as wide as 61% to 39% in favour of a no vote.

A poll asking how would you vote in a second independence referendum in the event of a no deal Brexit still put No ahead on 52% to 48% earlier this month.

None of this is enough for Nicola Sturgeon to commit to a vote.

Last time the Yes movement was successful in persuading a multitude of no voters and a significant number of don’t knows and those who hadn’t really thought about it.

It closed the gap from around 70% to 30% down to 55% to 45%. Quite an achievement and a testament to the campaign organisers and the positive message it was promoting.

Next time it will be more difficult. Most people have made their minds up one way or another and those undecideds are fewer in number.

In short, no voters have to be persuaded to vote yes.

If the polls are right then Brexit, whatever the deal, doesn’t look like providing the grounds for optimism many in the independence movement are hoping for.

Brexit might provide a reason for holding a referendum but it it doesn’t mean it will produce a different outcome.