IF anyone is expecting the Brexit chaos engulfing the Tories at Westminster to lead to a second independence referendum, they will have to wait a little longer.

Nicola Sturgeon was asked at Holyrood, now that the terms of the deal are known, would she set out her plans for a second independence referendum.

Patrick Harvie of the Greens urged the First Minister to announce a referendum that could see Scotland become an independent nation in the EU.

Ms Sturgeon, however, is still being cautious. She is allowing the Brexit debacle to keep independence supporters simmering below the boil unwilling yet to turn up the gas.

“Let’s wait and see how it plays out,” was her response.

There are numerous possibilities which the First Minister is probably right to see how they develop.

First is the immediate future of Theresa May. It is now looking inevitable that there will be a challenge to her leadership with a raft of fresh resignations and Tory Brexiters, led by Jacob Rees-Mogg, putting in letters of no confidence.

Will she resign or will she stay and face down her opponents. It all comes down to numbers but she is not one for walking away from a fight.

Either way it looks like there will be a contest. Who will emerge victorious? Will Mrs May prevail? Will the Tory anti Europe right wing wrest control under Boris Johnson or Michael Gove? Or will a successor from the centre emerge Philip Hammond? Gavin Williamson?

Then, will there be a General Election to give that new Tory leader a mandate like Theresa May did in 2017.

That could lead to a change in Government, if Labour gets its act together and seizes the best opportunity it could ever hope for to topple a chaotic Tory government.

Or a right wing nationalist Conservative Government pushing through the hardest of Brexits.

That could be a way off but could present the SNP and the yes movement with he circumstances to push for independence.

The other scenario is there is a so-called People’s Vote, if the Brexit draft agreement either doesn’t get approval of Parliament or gets ripped up by a new Tory leader and Prime Minister.

Should that happen and the 2016 result is repeated then there will be even more ammunition for the SNP.

Who knows what tomorrow, never mind next week, will bring?

Ms Sturgeon said on Thursday it was not certain that Theresa May would still be in office by the end of the day. She was but for how long?

Mrs May is still in office, for the time being, but faces a mammoth task in holding on to power.

There are so many variables that the First Minister is probably right to wait for the outcome and all the while hoping that support for independence grows enough to make it a possibility it could actually be won this time.

Nicola Sturgeon knows there is not yet enough support to overturn the 2014 result. The opinion polls have hardly moved despite the Brexit shambles.

Like Theresa May, over will she or wont she resign? Like the Tory contenders considering a challenge to take over. It is all about the numbers.

And no politician worth their title would declare their hand without first knowing how those numbers stack up.